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What this is Written analysis of prediction markets: how they price events, how their public records can be read, and what the data does and does not show. These are research notes, published for educational purposes. They are not investment, betting, or legal advice, and they do not recommend any trade or position.

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Disclaimer: the pieces published here are written research and commentary on prediction markets, provided for educational and informational purposes only. They describe how public market data can be read and what it does and does not establish. Nothing here is financial, investment, betting, or legal advice, nothing here recommends any trade, wager, or position, and nothing here encourages participation in trading or gambling of any kind. Any figures cited were accurate as of the date of writing and are not updated afterwards. Where an account or venue is discussed, the discussion rests on publicly available records and is not an allegation that any person or entity has broken a rule or a law. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Kalshi, Polymarket, or any league, team, or exchange; all trademarks belong to their owners. Educational analysis of publicly available market data. Not trading, investment, or legal advice. Read the docs →